President Trump will win reelection. Anyone who watched his presser after the midterms knows in his or her bones that it’s gonna happen, because he’s getting better and better at the job.
He’s spent two years learning the job to which he brought a communications skill set unmatched by any other commander in chief, except Ronald Reagan.
Nobody is better at “combative” than Trump, and we live in an age addicted to combativeness. Cable news has adopted sports-like coverage and monetized combativeness. The culture is built on combativeness.
The president is also getting better and better at the policy and performance aspects of the presidency, getting better on the details even as he sharpens his jousting skills.
If Trump repopulates his front bench with a talented supporting cast of people who would amplify rather than muffle his message, he’ll be unstoppable in 2020.
Of course that could change, but right now you just have to say: he is the prohibitive favorite.