Democrats won’t repeat their huge mistake of 2016—focusing on the popular vote and national polling while ignoring crucial mechanics of the Electoral College.
To unseat Trump, the Democrats must flip at least three of the nine crucial swing states Trump won last time. Now that won’t be easy, with perennial battlegrounds Ohio and Florida trending in a strongly Republican direction.
Instead, Democrats will concentrate on three heartland pick-ups: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
In all three states, Republicans fared very badly in 2018, losing Senate and governor’s races. Trump needs to hold just one of these three keystones and he’ll win: even if Democrats take both Michigan and Pennsylvania—the two larger prizes of the “key three”—Trump still gets 270 and wins the presidency by a single electoral vote.
Look for another close, fierce, fight to the finish!