Tag Archives: 2020 election

Jerry Bowyer: Pollsters and the 2020 Election

Political analyst and poll watcher Nate Silver recently mocked political prediction markets, accusing them of being delusional and out of touch with reality.

But when you look back at the 2020 election, the prediction markets were a better gauge on the outcome than nearly all of the elite polling outlets. While pundits pointed to polls that showed a massive Biden lead, prediction markets thought the election outcome was close to a toss-up.

In Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio, Biden’s support was vastly overstated by the polling industry. In Florida, Polls said Trump would lose. The markets said he would win. He won by over 3 percent.

The success of betting markets is not some great mystery: They harness the power of the profit motive. Pollsters and pundits almost never get fired for bad predictions. But futures markets punish bad predictions.

It’s time we pay less attention to pollsters and more attention to markets.

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Hugh Hewitt: Trump’s Biggest Bet

With just days now before Election Day, President Trump has been making his biggest bet: that the portion of the American electorate living between the coasts knows what is in its own best interest.

He thinks these Americans know that their interests—economic, cultural, familial—diverge sharply from the coastal elites.

Trump has taken up the case for folks between the coasts and states at the margin. He’s counting especially on voters in Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—and turnout is going to be enormous.

The turnout issue means that—for first time since I started watching politics closely—a blowout in either direction is genuinely possible.

I hope you’ve made your plans to vote—and make sure to remind those in your world to get out and vote.

America is at a crossroads—with two starkly different visions for the future of the nation we love.

Whatever the result: Don’t regret not doing your part.

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The Numbers on the Economy Make the Case for Trump in 2020

The 2020 election is not even going to be close.

The recent numbers on the economy make it clear:

The first-quarter gross domestic product growth came in at 3.2 percent. The economy over which President Trump is presiding is strong and getting stronger. A recession before Election Day looks less and less likely by the day.

Small wonder then that Trump dominates the GOP with an approval rating close to 90 percent. His administration’s deregulatory push is accelerating. More and more rule-of-law judges are being confirmed to the bench. Readiness levels in the U.S. military have been renewed. Our relationship with our strongest ally, Israel, is at its closest in decades.

Last week’s message from a booming economy should have rocked the Democratic field. But the party remains intent on poring over the Mueller report while they face a Hobson’s choice between a Biden-esque person or someone from the hard-left Bernie brand of Democratic Socialism.

Whoever the Dems nominate, the case for Trump in 2020 looks good.

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