Tag Archives: polls

Jerry Bowyer: Pollsters and the 2020 Election

Political analyst and poll watcher Nate Silver recently mocked political prediction markets, accusing them of being delusional and out of touch with reality.

But when you look back at the 2020 election, the prediction markets were a better gauge on the outcome than nearly all of the elite polling outlets. While pundits pointed to polls that showed a massive Biden lead, prediction markets thought the election outcome was close to a toss-up.

In Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio, Biden’s support was vastly overstated by the polling industry. In Florida, Polls said Trump would lose. The markets said he would win. He won by over 3 percent.

The success of betting markets is not some great mystery: They harness the power of the profit motive. Pollsters and pundits almost never get fired for bad predictions. But futures markets punish bad predictions.

It’s time we pay less attention to pollsters and more attention to markets.

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Mohler: Polling and the 2020 Election


The polls have been way off for two straight presidential elections now—and it matters.

The failure of our elite polling industry is politically important and very rich with worldview implications as well.

Now, some of these polls have been off in the past, but the problem is that we’re in the second election cycle when they have been off again—and not by a little bit. They’re off by a lot—and in the same direction.

Pollsters do seem to know where to find conservatives and maybe they don’t care. Why does it matter? Because the pollsters and the parties and the elite media all understand that voters are not only being analyzed about how they are likely to vote, but the announcement of a poll does itself often change voting behavior—or at least it can change that behavior of voters.

It’s not just a problem with pollsters, we’re looking at a problem with the entire political class. Again, I ask, do they care?

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Owen Strachan: Our First Institutions at Risk

Are the kids okay?

According to a new poll from the Wall Street Journal and NBC, just 30 percent of millennials and Generation Z say religion is important to them. Only 40 percent of young people say being patriotic is important—and one-third say having children is important.

Polls come and opinions go, but this data represents a real change in the thinking of America’s young. If religion, country, and children aren’t of great consequence, what is in this life? Staring at social media? Playing games? Watching movies?

Something profound is happening in America. Our youth are in danger of living frictionless, commitment-free lives. We need a recovery of confidence in our first institutions: church, family, nation. We are—young and people and older people alike—called to build a life build on something more than our own self-interest.

Let’s get back to business. Let’s look beyond ourselves. Let’s do hard things.

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Michael Medved: Impeachment Talk Can Only Damage Dems


Recent polls suggest 70 percent of Democrats support impeachment of President Trump—a preference ignoring obvious lessons from the recent past.

Andrew Johnson was impeached in 1868 during his last months in office and he wasn’t running for re-election. Then with Richard Nixon a century later, momentum against him proved so powerful that he resigned before voters went to the polls for mid-terms.

Only Bill Clinton faced Congressional elections in the midst of an impeachment crisis—and he became the only president since the two-party system began to gain Congressional seats in the middle of his second term. Americans disliked Clinton’s amorous adventures but they hated the idea of impeachment—and still do. If Democrats campaign for Congress promising turmoil, scandal-mongering and gridlock, they will lose—and deserve to lose.

 

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Jerry Bowyer: Fruits of the Protests After Shooting in Florida

In the wake of the horrific school shooting in Florida, well organized activists have embarked on a strategy of attacks against the NRA. Some have attempted to brand the NRA as a terrorist organization, and companies have been bullied into dropping businesses ties with it. It hasn’t worked. In fact, analysis by Bowyer research published recently on Townhall Finance shows that on-line inquiries about membership in the NRA reached the highest levels ever recorded.

In other words, large numbers of Americans saw these attacks and instead of running away from the NRA, started researching how they can sign up! And those companies which ended business relations with NRA have suffered sharp declines in public favorability.

Apparently Americans like the whole Bill of Rights despite political attacks on parts of it.

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